Financial Freedom Sloth

achieving financial freedom one lazy step at a time

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The ethical side of FIRE

Apparently some people wonder if this financial freedom/early retirement stuff is morally right or wrong.  Cheesy finance posted the question here and I was only going to type a short comment. And then I started typing and the short comment turned into a long one, which turned into this post …

The tax side

The ethical debate seems to be revolving around the question if we are committing a mortal sin because we will pay less taxes. Personally I have zero issues with it. I find our government incredible wasteful with the money people had to work so hard for. Frugality isn’t a trait often found in government bureaucracy. If they are just going to waste it, I do not feel very inclined to keep on providing my money to them. I also would like a much smaller government as in my mind they are now active in area’s better left to the private sector. Cutting the government budget in half would be a good start. And then cut it in half again …. This because I firmly believe a smaller and more efficient government would benefit our society a lot more than the over bloated wasteful one we have now.

So for me the tax side of FIRE is not a problem, on the contrary 😉 I sometimes refer to my frugal living as financial guerrilla warfare against the ever hungry government caterpillar.

The bigger picture

What I do wonder is if by checking out early from the workforce if we are slowing down the progress of society in general. With progress being defined as a better standard of living for the most people possible. Sure, most of us have jobs that do not really contribute to this and the job itself will be done by somebody else, so no actual loss there. But I have found I get more stuff done when I am working. I get pretty lazy without external pressure. That might just be me off course. And a whole lot of people who have reached FIRE seem to keep pretty busy or devote more time to self-development. But since, once FIRE reached we do not pay a lot off taxes, are we contributing in another, perhaps a more meaningful, way to society?

I have been wondering, where are the FIRE people who did truly exceptional stuff in their retirement? Stuff they would have never done if they still needed to work and is not only personal development but does benefit society as a whole? An innovation, a charity accomplishment, or even making big amazing structures for burning man …

Perhaps I look at it the wrong way. Perhaps the impact of the FIRE community will not be a few big exceptional accomplishments (because realizing the big exceptional accomplishment would probably turn into work at a certain point). Perhaps the impact will be more in a sort of grass root movement. Lots of people whom make small improvements in their own personal life and community because they have the time to do it. Buying less useless crap and focusing on meaningful experiences and relations with other people cannot be bad for our society.

Perhaps it will only be when a certain threshold of FIRE people in the society is reached that network effects and scalable stuff will start to happen and the impact on the whole society become visible….

Monthly expense report: October

October was challenging. Some high expenses but also the first serious withdrawal from my investment account. Full details below

Personal account:

Income: 3 551,63 euro

Expenses: 3 447,70 euro

Savings: 103,93 euro or 2,93%

First off the higher income: 3 550 euro as this was the month I did my first serious withdrawal from my investment account. I transferred 1 500 euro from my investment account. Total day trading profits are at 5 865 USD and I was planning on transferring these in full this year. The idea being to accelerate my savings, thus finish renovating the house quicker and being able to stop working one year earlier. I do not know if I will go through with this plan. Returns on UVXY puts are healthy so at the moment I want to plow as much money as possible into that. I will withdraw another 250 euro next month, bringing my withdrawal to an even 2 000 euro for the year. But above that, not sure what I am going to do yet.

Expenses are high because the extra 1 500 euro was immediately transferred to the girlfriends account. You see, back in March when I bought the Vespa we paid it 50/50 the idea being the girlfriend would also use it to go to work and such. Turns out it is too heavy for her to use (heavy as in weight, not horsepower) and she doesn’t use it at all. But I love the Vespa! I actually prefer to use the Vespa than our car. With this payment it is now completely mine. Trying to convince her to buy a lighter, 50 cc scooter with the money but no success so far …

Another big expense was the year subscription I bought for our local swimming pool. This will reduce my cost per swim from 3 euro to 2 euro and some change so it should save me money over the next year but I had to book the full expense now.

Without these two large expenses I would have been at 1 677 euro. But two visits to Ghent to catch up with some friends explain that overspend. Trying to be a bit less of a hermit and it is an expense that will probably be higher once I no longer work full time.

The joint bank account

Income: 2 312 euro

Expenses: 1 589,38

Savings: 722,62 euro

Lowest we ever spend in our joint account. Again due to our holiday . We didn’t spend a euro in our joint account the first 9 days of October! (we should go on holiday more often 😉
Adding half of these savings to my own meager savings and I come to savings of 465,24 euro or 13%. Not too bad for a month where I essentially bought half a Vespa.

We also received some good news from the government. Our tax refund will hit our account at the end of this year.  This would mean we will start next year with a healthy balance in the joint account!

Using options when you are a dividend growth investor

It’s my not so humble opinion that options are perfect for those whom pursue a dividend growth strategy. You see, as a dividend grower who likes to buy and keep stock for a long period you get something for free with options.

The price of an option is determined by the current stock price, the intrinsic value, time to expiration or the time value, volatility, interest rates and cash dividends paid.

It’s the volatility part that is interesting part. You see, as a trader who goes in and out potions a lot volatility is indeed a risk factor for which you want to be rewarded. But as a dividend growth investor you don’t really need to care about volatility at all. All that matters is your purchasing price as that determines your dividend yield.

Volatility is the movement of the stock price: stock A which goes from 100 euro to 94 euro, then to 107 euro and then back down to 105 euro has a higher volatility than stock B that goes from a 100 euro to 102 euro and then settles on the 105 euro. For a trader the more volatility is indeed a risk as he might get forced out of a position. Both stock may start and end at the same price but the higher volatility of stock A makes it more riskier for our professional trader than stock B. As a dividend grower who is going to keep the stock for the long run, not so much. You want your dividend yield (the same for both stocks) and some long term capital appreciation (also the same for both stocks). But if you use options to buy stock A, thanks to the higher volatility, you can actually buy stock A at a cheaper price than stock B because the option premium you collect will be higher!

Buying a stock with a put

And that is not the only advantage options can give you. Playing with the strike price can lower your purchase price and playing with the expiry time can let you travel in time a bit.

A few practical examples of the fun (and bigger yield) you can have with options.

AB Inbev’s current price is 105,4 euro. Let’s say you like AB Inbev but prefer to buy it at 100 euro.
You could enter a limit order and wait, and wait, and wait. Me, I prefer to be paid to wait. So you could sell a put at strike 100. The December series still pays around 1 euro which means that until the third friday of September you have the obligation to buy AB Inbev at 100 euro a share. Deduct your premium from this and you will actually only pay 99 euro out of your own pocket. If the option is not exercised you just made a 1% return on your money just for waiting. It probably will not be exercised because as long as AB Inbev has a higher price than 100 euro in the market nobody is going to exercise this option as they can get more money for their shares by selling to somebody else at market price. Also, 1% in less than two months isn’t bad. I really have no idea why us Belgians have so much money on savings accounts bringing in next to nothing while such attractive yields still exist in the market. the only possible downside is you have to buy AB Inbev at 100 euro which will then get you a dividend yield of above 2% net (which still is a lot higher than your savings account).

But what if you want to be sure you get the shares AND pay less than 100 euro a share? That is easy, play with the strike price and expiry time. Going down the ladder here you will find the September 2018 puts. The 110 euro strike price gives you a current bid of 12,6 euro premium which means you actually buy at 97,4 euro and the 120 euro gives you a bid of 20 euro premium which means you buy at 100 euro exactly. Personally I would go for the 110 strike price.

If it gets exercised you bought at a price lower than today. If it doesn’t get exercised you just made 12,9% in less than a year (you only need to set aside 97,4 euro of your own money as the rest you get from the option premium). Actually, you do not even need all that money now! If you have a broker like Lynx which lets you use your other stocks at collateral you can even do it with money you still need to save. You need to have the money by expiry date which means you still have 9 months to save up the 9 740 euro you will need to buy the 100 AB Inbev shares. If you are able to save 900 euro a month you could already sell that put and pocket the option premium with 0 euro in the account to actually buy the shares. (American style options can actually be exercised any time before the expiry date but that does not happen a lot. And even if it would happen my broker is more than happy enough to lend me the money at a 3% interest rate. Selling the put either gets me 6% reduction on the current stock price or a 12.9% return if not exercised. I’ll risk the small chance of needing to borrow the money at 3%). You are in fact making money on money you not yet have. Perfect for a person who saves a lot of his wage and wants to invest it to achieve early retirement (hmm, I wonder where I could find somebody like that …)

So selling a put is used to lower your purchase price or play a bit with time and get you a stock in the future even if you do not yet have the money.

Selling a stock via calls

Once you own a stock it is time to take a look at calls. Selling calls is what you will do when you want to get rid of a stock because the dividend yield is too low. Or to create an additional cash flow from a stock.

Personally I would only buy dividend stocks if the dividend yield after taxes is above 2.5%. If it dropped below 1.6% I would want to sell the stock and then go on the hunt for a new one paying above 2.5%

Let’s say you already own AB Inbev. And you are not too happy with them not raising their interim dividend. But at the present 105 euro price you do not wish to sell. But 120 euro, that is a different matter. 120 euro, that might tempt you. Well, the September 2018 calls at strike 120 euro will pay you 2.2 euro. If you do not need to sell you just made an extra yield of 1.8% on your AB Inbev (and option premiums are tax free in Belgium folks!) If you do need to sell, well you got the price you wanted and now have the cash to write a put on a stock with a better dividend yield … I had a friend who usually doubled his dividend yield by writing some well chosen calls.

The fun part is you get your call premium now, when you sell the option, for a future obligation. But the premium money is yours to keep (with puts you need to leave the money in cash as it might be needed to buy the shares if the put is exercised). Since you already have the shares which you may or may not need to sell you the premium income of a call can be put to work immediately! You could perhaps use it to sell a put to buy some other shares …

A little word to the wise. While selling a put when you do not have all the money necessary to pay for the underlying stock is ok (as long as you know you can save that money by the time the expiry date comes around) do not ever do it with calls! Only sell calls on stock you own as your potential loss is unlimited.

Personally I would make an excel sheet for all my positions that calculates at which stock price my dividend yield drops below 1.6% and then go look if I can sell calls at that strike price and book some extra, tax free returns on those positions.

Why do it?

By buying dividend stock via puts and selling via calls I think you could add at least 1% to your return. That might not seem a lot for the effort you need to put in. But 100.000 euro which returns 7% during 10 years (and the return each year reinvested at the same 7%) gives you 196 715 euro.

Push your return rate to 8% and it is 215 892 euro. That is a 20.000 euro difference in 10 years. And who doesn’t like a big return?

It is also the reason why I would limit my number of stocks I buy to only 5 or 6 well chosen stocks. It is less work, and I am lazy. But putting more money in fewer stocks lets you use options. An option contract always work with multiple of 100 underlying shares so selling 1 put option on AB Inbev at strike 100 means you will need 10.000 euro to buy the shares. Having a lot of money in a few positions also means your option premiums start to become significant which means you can invest the money a lot faster where otherwise you would need to wait longer and sell additional options to get enough money to play with.

And your turn over rate does matter! The faster you can get money re-invested the higher your return will be. It is another advantage of a broker like Lynx. When an option is close to expiration and will definitely not be exercised you can always leave the position expiry but already sell a new option having your money or the underlying stock pull double duty for a week or two and save a bit on trading fees (every little thing helps).

I am not a dividend investor because of the high tax the Belgian government has on dividends (30%, auch) but if I was one I would have a highly concentrated portfolio with only 4 or 5 stocks (you can always choose a holding like GBL if you really want diversification). I would only buy new stock via puts and sell stock via calls. An excel sheet would track the dividend yield and determine at which strike price I would want to sell those calls. With only a handful of stocks the work would be minimal and your return should be 1 or 2% above those not using options …

Even if you want to skip buying the shares and you chose your strike price so that your options are not exercised (in essence being a premium hunter, which is something I do at times. Tax free money bitches!) I recommend to do it with stable dividend paying stocks. The reason being that once in a while you will get assigned and might even have to wait a few years before you can start selling calls on the stock at a profitable level. The dividend will make those years a lot more comfortable, especially if you are FIRE …

Special circumstance investing – October update

Google, in which I day trade a bit posted excellent quarterly numbers and hit an all time high in the month of October. So was it a profitable month for me as well? Let’s find out.

What did I do

Still patiently waiting on the expiry of my AB inbev puts (December). Ahold Delhaize finally moved in the right direction price wise but it looks like I will need to roll this one a bit more before making a profit on it.

I did close down the position I had in UVXY puts I bought in September for a profit of 1 252 USD. This was a 10,6% return in less than a month. I will be deploying way more money in UVXY puts in the future. Last month I explained why.

And then there was my day trading. I literally closed my last position 2 minutes before starting to type this post.  Total profits in October are 1 100 USD.

I try not to get hung up on the profits I leave on the table while day trading but this month was very difficult. First off: I left A LOT of money on the table. And then there is the girlfriends portfolio…

The girlfriends portfolio

As I mentioned last month I do, on occasion, day trade in her portfolio as well. Last month I even  made more money in her account than in mine. This month, well, this month was worse. Total day trading profit came to a whopping 1 830 USD! This is the second month in a row I did better in her account than in my own, and the difference is getting bigger! It shows I should work on my discipline and enter in fewer, but more profitable, trades when day trading. Lesson learned.

Off course the point of me managing her stash is to build it up as good as I can so the more money I make in her account the better. I do not think it would be very good for or relationship if I pulled the plug and she still had to work. But I have to be honest, it does sting a bit that my biggest day trading profit didn’t happen in my account. O, the fragile male ego!!

But all in all it was a pretty good month (especially because we were still on holiday for the first week of it). All of the above is generated by using leverage or using cash which was previously generated by using leverage. We haven’t added any extra money into our investments accounts for the last 7 years (all savings eventually going to home renovations). It is an extra on top of the growth of our old investments. And those old investments are doing pretty good also. I bought my very first Berkshire Hathaway B shares on 19 January 2006 at around 60 USD a piece. I did a lot of stuff in between (my trading overview is 12 pages long at present, and that is without my day trading) but never sold those shares and now am fully invested in Berkshire Hathaway.

The girlfriend bought GBL at 60,5 euro in September 2010 and never sold those…

Choose your stock well, and you only ever need to do 1 trade. It was what originally attracted me to investing. It is the only thing I have found where being lazy can bring in a lot of money. It is off course very boring. Which explains all of the above, because let’s be honest, this shit is downright fun to do!

 

Monthly expense report: September

Wauw, already half way octobre and I still need to post my September expense report. I am really doing my sloth reputation honor this month.

Personal account:

Income: 2 036,42 euro

Expenses: 1 578,72 euro

Savings: 457,70 euro or 22,48%

Again a bit over 1 500 euro in spending. The overspend had one and only one reason: our holiday in lanzarote. Let me tell you, Lanzarote is not the cheapest place to go on holiday to. Could we have made it a more frugal holiday: definitely yes (think 55 euro submarine trip). Did I feel like it: nope! Honestly, I go on holiday so infrequently (this was my second holiday in 8 years) that being frugal while on holiday just isn’t very high on my to do list. It is at home, in Belgium that the biggest gains are to be made. And since I am lazy it is best to concentrate the few efforts I do there. Maximum gain for minimal effort is my motto.

The joint bank account:

Income: 2 608 euro

Expenses: 2 149 euro

Savings: 459 euro

We didn’t use the joint account to pay for anything during our holiday. It didn’t make that much of an impact on our joint spending as all fix costs off course remained.

Meal tickets only for the one month were 112 euro.

So total income 2 036,42 + 56 euro = 2 092,42
Total savings 457,70 + 229,50 euro= 687,20 euro which gives me a total savings rate of 32,8%

Special circumstance investing – september update

Wow, one month without a post. Some bloggers have the decency of warning their readers beforehand, me, not so much …

What did I do

Well I rolled my Ahold Delhaize puts to november. Same strike price. I might still walk a way with a profit from this one. The market is really overreaction for this one. It just shows how tight the nerves are …

AB inbev is still doing fine and my leveraged construction can now take a 20% drop without me losing any profit on it! Despite all this great news I am still planning on further deleverage. No more new option writing and once the present leveraged construction is unwound no more leverage (except for the occasional day trading).

Day trading in September brought in 800 USD. Day trading in this case isn’t the correct word. I bought 100 CfD’s on Google on the first of September and then Google went down and kept going down. I have been there before and it is one of the reasons why I don’t trade when it is near an all time high. At 955,40 USD it was my conviction it would eventually go higher. High enough to recoup the financing fees and make a profit. I also had stuff to do in the evening like preparing a big bbq for the 9th September (and thus needing to clean up the garden), job hunting and preparing for my two week holiday in Lanzarote. It was nice to have a break from day trading in the evening en just do practical stuff. Time proved me right so while vacationing in Lanzarote I put in a sell order at 969 USD. When not filled I lowered it to 965,50 USD for the next day and while driving to the vulcano on Lanzarote on the 29th September the order got filled at a price of 966,017 USD. Google actually shot up a lot more that day so I could have made more money but hey, I was on a holiday. Actually, holding the position would have made me a lot more. But I just didn’t want another leveraged position during my holiday. Day trading is an extra for me so I will take what I can and try not to be bothered to much by the money I leave on the table.

Before going on holiday I also bought 10 puts on UVXY, expiration 01/2019 for 11,75 USD a piece. I have a nice profit on them and probably will sell them on Monday.

Add the nice rise of Berkshire Hathaway to the above and my net worth reached a new all time high. And that while I was vacationing and doing absolutely nothing productive with my time. Gentleman of leisure indeed!

The girlfriends portfolio

Here too I rolled her Ahold Delhaize puts (and in my parents portfolio).

Turns out I kinda miscalculated here free cash position last month and should not have done the UVXY puts in August so I didn’t enter a new trade in her account this time. Once the puts are gone I will move agressively into it.

Since Google dropped after I bought my CfD’s and I had a strong conviction they would go up I bought 100 CfD’s in the girlfriends portfolio to. Bought at 954,90 USD and sold at 968,99 USD (I never lowered her sell order as I did on mine). So she actually made more money on this trade then I did! After financing fees a cool 1 150 USD was added to her account.

I usually only day trade in my portfolio as switching between accounts is a bit of a bother. But on occasion I do enter a trade in the girlfriends portfolio also. It is so random and few I don’t even bother keeping score. But up to now, all have been profitable.

Why deleveraging and moving aggressively into UVXY puts

Three reasons

– prices are high for most stocks and in the case of a correction/crash even cheap or moderately priced stocks will drop in price

– I hate cash

– I suck in market timing

Prices are high, but that doesn’t mean they can not go higher. I also know that timing the market is a fools game. So I keep the stock I already have.

But I prefer to buy my shares when they are cheap and there isn’t a lot of cheap out there. Not buying stock and building up the cash should be the logical way then. But I hate cash, I want my money to work hard for me so I can be lazy! Enter UVXY puts. UVXY is a play on volatility so not linked to the high values of stock. And it should give me a minimum return of 10% a year.

So I am positioning myself that:

– if there is no crash I have the growth of Berkshire Hathaway and the return on my UVXY puts investments. My average return should still beat the market.

– if there is a crash: Buffett can finale deploy his 100 billion cash reserve, insuring further rise in Berkshire share price. I too have some nice cash standing at the sidelines, ready to buy good stock at cheap prices. Loses should be less then the market average and gains after the correction should be a lot bigger than the market average.

Heads I win, tails I also win.

The cost for this is the extra profit I could have made by some leveraged positions. But I no longer feel these extra profits justify the extra risk I am running. There is a time to be greedy and this isn’t the time.

 

Monthly expense report: August

August has been a busy month. Working, swimming, day trading, job hunting, birthday, preparations for a 20+ persons BBQ in our orchard … Let’s see the impact on our finances.

Personal account:

Income: 2 320,29 euro

Expenses:  1 557,35 euro

Savings: 762,94 or 32,8%

A bit higher income as it was my birthday. Since I am not accepting any financial help from the parents in the home renovations (I would find it a bit strange since I have a stash of over 250.000 euro)  my parents have resorted to a guerilla-style of money giving. Any time they have an excuse to give me (or the girlfriend!) money they do it. And they have been increasing the amounts too! Sooner or later I will need to have a talk with the parents about this and either let them pay for the remaining renovations or put a stop to this monetary guerilla-warfare. It’s starting to get a bit ridiculous!

I only count day trading income when I actually transfer it to my personal account so that explains why my day trading profits of 800 USD do not show up here.

Just a little bit over the 1 500 euro mark on the expenses. I have only myself to blame as I spend 93 euro buying graphic novels. Back when I was a student I used to be a pretty big graphic novel fan. One of my favorite pass times was browsing the new arrivals in different comic book shops. I still enjoy it and had a few new issues on my wish list for some time now. First time ordering it on line as I just didn’t have the time to go visit a shop. And isn’t that a sad statement?

The joint bank account

Income: 2 672 euro

Expenses: 2 752,66 euro

Savings: -80,66 euro

An expensive month due to one reason: home and fire insurance of 854 euro. Yes, I need to look into it. But first I need to still check if we can transfer/renegotiate our mortgage. And then afterwards go shop around for better insurance. On the other hand, we do have a big house and those things apparently take square meters into account …

We also had one restaurant visit to enjoy one of Belgium’s best national dishes: mussels and fries with a cold beer!

Income was also higher due to finally getting the meal ticket situation sorted out. Finally got my hands on the card where three months of accumulated meal tickets was waiting: 472 euro of extra disposable money!! (In Belgium companies can give their employees meal tickets. A fiscally interesting way since this is not taxed or something. But my present company worked with a provider of which I no longer had a card. They first send the card to their office in Ghent , then to their office in Antwerp and finally to the Brussels office. I then needed to find the time to go get the card because it is a form of compensation so papers needed to be signed and identity verified, sigh!).

The meal vouchers also present me with a bit of a problem. How do I count it? I get them as income but they go directly to our joint expenses as a bit of an extra. We both pay 1 200 euro into the joint account, I give whatever meal voucher I get and the girlfriend pays for the cat food. We try to divide stuff 50/50 but neither of us want to start calculating it down to the last euro so we just agreed upon this (the girlfriend did get the better part of the deal, damn her and her womanly ways!! 😉 )But it is income that we do spend.

I think I will add half of it to my income. So doing that and adding half of the 80,66 euro deficit to my expenses gives me a savings rate of 28%.

Special circumstance investing – august update

As mentioned here I need to deleverage. So option writing is out for the time being. The put option on ADM at strike 40 USD expired out of the money so that is some leverage gone.

What did  I do

Since I still want to be finished with the renovation as soon as possible and options were out of the question I doubled down on day trading. Total day trading income for August was 800 USD. The highest since I am back at work! I’ll be on holiday for part of September and October so I do not expect to repeat this any time soon.

For the remaining puts I have: AB Inbev is doing fine but Ahold Delhaize will need to be rolled to a further date. The market decided to behave like an idiot and send the stock a lot lower because Amazon completed the takeover of  Whole Foods and reduced some prices (actually brought them in line with the competition as Whole foods had the reputation of being expensive). This will work itself out over the next couple of months and I expect Ahold Delhaize to regain most of this drop. It is one of the reasons I chose companies with predictable cash flows to write puts on. Even if the market is stupid, a few quarters of the same predictable cash flow gushing in usually fixes that ..

The only reason why it annoys me is because I now want to get rid of all options and even build up my cash further. The reason for this is UVXY but since I did the trade in the girlfriends portfolio I’ll explain it there. It’s going to be a long read so let’s put on some tunes shall we?

 

The girlfriends portfolio

So, I had mentioned I would probably move to the girlfriends portfolio to play with puts on UVXY. True to my word on 9 August I bought 3 puts on UVXY at strike 20 USD and paid 10,25 USD for it.

I wanted to do the same trade in my portfolio but I didn’t get assigned on the 9th. After that the price of UVXY started going up. Logic would dictate the price of the put to go down. But it didn’t. It actually went up! The reason for this is that UVXY is a play on volatility and most people use the puts to do short term gambles on sharp rise (or drops) in volatility. So a lot of people flooded into this product. Which drove up the price of the puts even if they should have dropped! We had an interesting ‘talk’ about it in the comment section of this and this post.

I do recognize stupidity when I see it. I also like to profit from said stupidity so I myself did not buy any puts. I did sell the girlfriends puts on 15 august at 11,30 USD maxing almost 10% profit (300 USD) in less than a week.

Bottom line for UVXY is that it is an absolutely crap product, designed with short term gamblers in mind (read that explication people, so cool!). It is constructed in such a way that over time the house always wins (it will lose value over time, so Proshares who created it wins). The thing is, there is one way you can make a consistent profit on it it! And Velociraptor discovered that way. By buying long term puts (as I have done now two times) you put yourself more or less in the same position as the house. And over time you should profit of it. It can take several months, in rare cases even more than a year. Or it can take less than a week. But I am now convinced that a 10% annual profit, at the least, should be possible with this puts on this product.

Liquidity remains an issue since to play it correctly you buy the puts when the gambling masses are not interested in the product. But Velociraptor is able to put more than 20.000 USD in it. So I am now freeing up as much cash as I can and see if I can do this too!

Finally a good reason to talk to the parents and transfer some of their non working cash parked on savings accounts to their Lynx account!

Made it all the way to the end? Great! If it all seems a bit much

just remember, that you’re standing on a planet that’s evolving
And revolving at nine hundred miles an hour,
That’s orbiting at nineteen miles a second, so it’s reckoned,
A sun that is the source of all our power.
The sun and you and me and all the stars that we can see
Are moving at a million miles a day
In an outer spiral arm, at forty thousand miles an hour,
Of the galaxy we call the ‘Milky Way’.

Reduce spending with cashback sites

I am very selfishly putting more effort in finding a new job closer by home. And also trying to do a bit more day trading (daddy needs a new PC!). So expect fewer posts at least until I no longer waste three hours per day going to Brussels and back.

So just a quick post about cashback sites. That are sites whom give you back e certain percentage of your purchase at affiliated web shops.

We have been using ebuyclub for some months now (if we do not forget). It won’t be hundreds of euros we will be getting back this way (we just don’t spend enough on line for that). But every little thing helps. If you want to check it out, use code HNK2M6P at registration and we will get 5 euro and you three euro 😉

Qassa is another cashback site who has a few affiliated shops ebuyclub does not have. So we will try that platform the next time we shop at one of their sites.

And to make up for my lack of posts a little reading tip. Lackingambition is a no longer active blog (so it doesn’t show up in blogrolls a lot) who has some of the best posts on frugal living and the mustachian way of living I have ever read. Well worth going through his archives!

Adventures in day trading

I already talked about how I ended up at Lynx here. Lynx offered a multitude of new possibilities for me and in my first post about how I was going to use these I also mentioned day trading.

I had this to say about it:

With the SAB MILLER position active and me not needing to work at the time I grew bored. So I tried my hand at day trading. Technically it was day trading because I was buying and selling on the same day. But actually I had identified some stock that was cheap and I wanted to buy some. I just didn’t feel too comfortable with already having a 200.000 GBP leveraged position so as soon as I made some profit I closed the position (and thus the extra leverage). I practiced a bit with Berkshire Hathaway and Coca cola. And then when Google went down to 730 USD I really had some fun with it. Real day trading is off course have dozens or even hundreds of trades and playing both an uptrend and downtrend in stock price. I just bought stock I thought was cheap and then sold with a small profit. Sometimes I only did 1 or 2 of these trades, and some days 6 or 8. I found it to be way to much work and also too much stress but I did make around 2.500 USD in profits from it (another 1% added to the stash). But it would have been much more profitable to just buy Google at 730 USD, keep it for a few months and then sell it around 780 USD. I just wasn’t very comfortable with that amount of leverage at that time.

I stopped day trading when I started working again but then my temporary contract ended at the end of January. Since I once again had a leveraged construction at 2x leverage in my portfolio I decided to start day trading again.

Let’s do it again

My approach remained the same. So I chose google again to trade in.

The reasons for this is that I believe in the long term prospects of google (by which I mean the stock price should go up over time) and it usually has enough volatility during the day to make a small profit of at least a 100 USD of it with a trade.

I usually buy 100 CfD’s on Google. This costs me 5 USD in fees as that is the minimum fee Lynx charges. Selling will cost me another 5 USD so Google needs to go up 0,10 USD for me to break even. I usually try to make 100 USD on a trade. So google needs to move 1,10 USD for this to happen. This is about 0.0011%. So changes of this happening are pretty good.

Pretty good doesn’t mean guaranteed. Last Thursday would have been a bad day to try to day trade in google.

One of my own rules is that really bad days I stay away. Yes, even Thursday there would have been 2 or three points (red arrows) where a quick in and out hopping could have made some money but chances of picking the exact right time are too low to risk it.

I also do not trade when the stock is at an all-time high price (though I broke that rule to buy just below 1000 USD and then sell just above 1000 USD just so I could say I traded Google went it went over the 1000 USD share price. I now, stupid. Especially because nobody but me cares about something like that…). I also do not trade when the stock is at a high for that day.

What do I trade? Little drops in the stock.

15 August would have been a good day to trade.

There are 4 moments where I might have traded. We had a friend over so I didn’t go and sit behind the PC but I did want to show off a little bit so late in the afternoon I did log in. I was just in time for the last moment and opened a position. The upward movement wasn’t as strong as I thought it would be (should have sold at the first black arrow) so I left some money on the table but in the end was able to close the position with a net profit of 50 USD (sold somewhere around the second black arrow).

The trick is off course to identify that the dip is in fact a dip and not the beginning of a big downward movement. Either I have been lucky so far or I kinda have a ‘feel’ for it. But I have also closed positions at no profit or only 5 or 8 USD profit because the upward movement I thought would happen just didn’t materialize. I have had Google do nothing but go down after I open a position. Lucky for me this happened at prize points where I didn’t mind holding Google. So my day trade position then became a multi-day or in two occasions even multi-week position until Google rebound so I could exit the position at a profit. It is why I do not day trade when Google is at (or near) an all-time high (with the one exception, I knew it would cross the 1000 USD mark). Let’s just say I am pretty happy with the last drop in Google price. It is now at a level I feel comfortable trading it again.

As you just read there is nothing sophisticated or glamorous about it. But it is some extra money on a regular basis. Last year I made around 2.500 USD (in a couple of months) and this year I am around 3.250 USD (the price of the Vespa!). It is a little bit extra I now do in an effort to get the home renovations done quicker. My estimate is that the remaining home renovation will take around 50.000 euro. The girlfriend and me can save around 10.000 euro a year so these should take 5 years to  complete. If I make an additional 10.000 euro by day trading in the next 4 years well that is one year quicker that our house is finished. Since I do not want to retire before the renovations are done this could shave off a full year of me working!

I can feel my mind slipping

Before I started day trading I had read it is mostly a mental game and I can confirm it is.

First and all, you need to be able to stare at the price of a stock for hours. It literally is looking at a screen. So you have to be able to do that (luckily I have had lots of training at my previous jobs for this). And then you have to fight the urge to open a position. Believe me, this is hard! That is why you are sitting there after all! And the longer you sit there, the more you want to enter a trade.

Then when you do enter a trade there are nerves. Because your timing is never perfect. Meaning you buy in a dip, but the dip continues … And every 0.1 USD drop is costing you 10 USD. You are sitting there thinking: I should have waited a bit longer! I am leaving money on the table!!

Then the stock goes up. Oef, yes, it was a dip, yes I am going to make money here!

Then it goes down a bit again. We are talking cents here, cents on a 925 USD stock. So off course it is moving up and down. I always does that but what you need to determine here is: is the dip over and will it go higher or is the dip not over yet? Is this a little upward bounce before going down a lot more? How strong is the upward movement?

In all honesty, sometimes I exit the trade just in time before it drops another dollar. In those cases I feel pretty smart. But sometimes I get out with 5 or 10 USD profit thinking the stock will go down again but then it starts a strong upward movement, going up 2 or 3 dollar. Which means I just missed 300 USD profits. I feel pretty stupid then.

You need to leave your emotions at home. But you also need to be able to not give a fuck about the fact you missed profit. That is hard, because you are there, sitting behind the computer to make a 100 or 200 USD. You are thinking 10 cents movement = 10 USD. And since your timing is never going to be perfect you will always miss profits. So even if you know you missed some profit. Even if some part of your brain is screaming: nice going dimwit, you just missed 80 USD another part of your brain must scream back and say fuck it, I made some profit and I will continu to make profits, shut up other part of the brain! And that second part of your brain needs to win the shouting match! So you can continue trading and open a new position. And then the entire circus starts again. As you can read, it goes from utterly boring to utterly nerve wrecking.

Why do I do it then?

well, I seem to be decent at it. Within the rules I made for myself I am capable of making a little bit of profit. I don’t find it a pleasant activity to do but the 3.250 USD of profit so far equals 1,5 months of working in Brussels. Honestly, I prefer the day trading over the going to work. It takes less effort, and I don’t need to go to Brussels for it.

It also helps that it is a little extra on the side. I do not do it a lot. As a day job  I think it would be very exhausting. A little bit left and right is very doable. Sometimes I plan on doing some trading one evening and then when the time comes I don’t feel like it, so I don’t. Or the stock doesn’t move right so I stop after an hour. When I was unemployed I put in longer sessions. But even then, sometimes I made a nice profit in the first two hours so I just stopped for the rest of the day (or even week) and was off to do something a lot more fun than staring at a screen for hours.

So for the time being I am going to continue doing it. Hopefully get another 10.000 USD in profits from it over time so I can finish renovating the house one year earlier …

 

 

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