Financial Freedom Sloth

achieving financial freedom one lazy step at a time

Unemployment and financial freedom

As mentioned in my monthly expense report I am currently unemployed. there was a time not that far ago when this would have annoyed me. Not because off the fact that less money is coming in but more because I had a plan and things are not going to plan!! Grr, Hulk mad, hulk smash!

Growing as a person

Part of my personality has always been that I am a planner. I think most people in the early retirement community are planners. You need to be to achieve financial freedom (well, at the very least it helps)! And there are a lot of positives with being a planner. The thing is, as with all things, you should not overdo it. And I did make that mistake. My future vision was too strong and often stopped me from enjoying the present. I worried too much. Both about things I could not control and about things I could control. When I was home last year I didn’t enjoy it (I’ll delve deeper into this in another post). Things not going to plan annoy me still. But I try to limit its impact on my mood or on me enjoying the present.

Not working costs me around 750 euro a month. There is no way I would have spend almost 3.000 euro on a Vespa while being unemployed last year. This year I did. And I have enjoyed it immensely! What changed is my perspective.

Another perspective

The plan, in general terms, is to work another 5 a 7 years in a decent paying job so I can save enough money from work to finish renovating our house. These years would also give the stash enough time to grow big enough so it would reach the point where I could limit my working time to a couple of months a year and live of investments for the rest of the year.

Previously, I would have seen being unemployed as a derailment of the plan. Being unemployed and having less income each month would mean I would be older when I could stop working full-time.

Now I see this period of unemployment as a test run for later. I see it as a temporary mini-retirement because at the moment I DO NOT HAVE TO WORK. if I truly enjoy this time, it will be a mini-retirement! if I spend all day worrying and being annoyed because I am not following my plan it will not be a mini-retirement. So I chose to enjoy it.

Enjoying unemployment

That is why I did decide to buy a Vespa. It gave me a lot more mobility and it finally got me to go swimming again. I have to say, I really enjoy going to the swimming pool when almost nobody is around and having a lap all to myself.

I enjoy planning and preparing a little retro house party with a few friends at our place. Did you know that for 39 euro you can buy a pretty nice laser for your home! My inner gadget freak squealed in delight with all the new fun little toys that exist now (apparently I am not the only one who enjoys some techno in his living room).

And it was great fun hunting down all the classics from my youth. Did you know winamp still works on a windows 10 machine? Yes, I mean it when I say I am going retro!

A little bit of cheating

Now, most off you will be thinking: ‘that is really great Mr. financialfreedomsloth. Fantastic that you have not only identified a personality trait that stood in the way of your happiness and are trying to work at it. Kudos!’ And you should be thinking that! I am really happy with the evolution I have made in the last year. Yeah for me! I could stop here. But I want to be honest with you guys.

And the thing is, I am now enjoying being home so much I kinda want to have the house finished as soon as possible. I want to be able to sleep more people so I can have more guests at the techno parties I will organize. I want to have our office room finished so I can turn it into a chill out room for the party. I want the roof and attic finished so I can have my own private cinema-room because I already  enjoy the hell out of running my own Synology NAS with the Plex server connected to our flat-screen. Having a big ass screen, surround sound and perfect darkness is going to be heaven for the movie geek in me (and I know I can do it under a 1.000 euro once the attic is finished).

So I have been day trading again. I did it last year and well, my brain is pretty good at pattern recognition. It might not be day trading like the professionals do, but I did make 2.450 USD last year. That money stayed in the investment account. The goal now is to at least make up the difference between unemployment and my previous job (I am at 1.200 USD at the moment) so I can hurry up with the home renovations!

Some might say I just found a way to reconnect with my original plan and that is why I am actually enjoying the unemployment and not because I have found a new perspective. But I swear on the heads of my pet pigs (didn’t see that coming did you?) that I was already enjoying it before I started day trading again. I actually enjoyed it more before I did the day trading. I do not find it particularly fun to do: it is staring at a computer screen for hours on end. But for me, it is easy money.

Monthly expense report: march

How time flies when one is having fun! This month is going to be a bit ‘wonky’ for several reasons. I am afraid this will be true for the next month as well

As mentioned before: no investment gains are taken into account and our monthly mortgage payments (which are by far our highest expense) are viewed as an expense.

Personal account:

Income: 1 545,88

Expenses : 1 889,55

Savings: – 343,67 or – 22,23%

Income: 1 545,88

Expenses : 1 889,55

Savings: – 343,67 or – 22,23%

A negative personal savings rate!

Biggest reason is the drop in income due to the fact that once again I am unemployed. The temporary job came to an end 31st of january and well, I suck at job interviews! This is where a nice stash comes in handy as I am not particularly worried finance wise. If it was not for the house renovations we still need to do I would have been tempted to pull the plug now. It is something deserving its own post so more on the whole ‘being unemployed’ in the future.

Another reason was expenses. My part for the Vespa came was 1 500 euro which was the bulk of my expenses. second highest expense for me was actually 60 euro to go swimming again. Yes I have started to exercise again: feeling good and also something that deserves its own post!

No payments to the joint bank account as we had a nice tax return this month. Let’s take a look at that.

The joint bank account

Income: 5 771,43

1 100 euro each and a tax return of 3 571,43, we front load our joint account that is why this month the joint account still received funds of each of us where we did not incur the cost this month. The joint bank account will receive no funds in April as we will first eat up the tax refund.

Expenses: 2 907,84

Savings: 2 863,59 or 49,62%

Things now get a bit tricky to calculate my own savings rate. Best I could think of is add half of the tax refund to my ‘income’ of the month and then add half of the savings on the joint account to my savings.

Total income would then be 3 331,59

total savings would be  – 343,67 + 1 431,80 = 1 088,13 or 32,66%

Not bad for an unemployed person who also bought a Vespa!

Next month will be the reverse: good savings on the personal account and deeply negative on the joint account. This will all average out when I do a full year round up so I am not that concerned about this wonky month.

We also had an expensive restaurant visit and a wedding to attend this month. Otherwise we would have been closer to 40% savings rate on the joint account.

Buying a vespa 125cc

Two weeks ago I bought myself a Vespa GTI 125cc

If I am totally honest about it, I bought it because I wanted one. They’re great looking scooters and even driving it around our block I was immediately transported back to my youth. I had some of the best moments of my life being 16, 17 years old. Totally worry free and just cruising the scooter I had back then (a Honda Camino 50cc that legally only could go 45 km/h but i off course had it souped up to around 75 km/h, yes I was that type of guy …). I still remember one summer where Belgium had one of our rare heat waves of + 30 degrees celcius, cruising down the streets of my home town to meet up with some friends and then go swimming in a fishing pond my parents rented. The fact that a few nice looking girls decided to join us for a swim was a fact that made those days all the more enjoyable for my teenage self …

The frugal part

But was it also a frugal purchase? In some ways it was.

I bought it second hand for 2.750 euro and it was very well taken care of, with less than 11.000 km of use. New they cost around 4.300 to 4.800 euro’s.

It’s a 125cc, which means that I can drive it with the my current driver license. When you have a car driver license for over a year you can drive motorcycles up to 125 cc in Belgium (this apparently does not apply for the Netherlands).

Insurance is very cheap since we can add it to our car insurance: it will only cost 93 euro for one year.

The fuel economy is a lot better than our car (we have a Opel Combo) so I will probably save more than the insurance cost on car fuel.

It will avoid us from needing a second car with all the costs that entails while still giving us a lot more mobility options: I am in the centre of Leuven (20 km distance) in about 30 minutes. Going to the swimming pool only takes 10 minutes and no more worrying about parking space.

A friend of mine has the exact same one, he is a trained mechanic and is part of a Vespa Scooter club: maintenance will be cheap.

The not so frugal part

We already own an excellent electric bicycle. I could use that. I did use that bicycle to go to my temp work for about 9 months (distance also around 20 km). But I did also use the car when the girlfriend did not have to work. Not having to go to work with the bicycle every single day was really, really nice. Having to cycle home, after swimming was really, really annoying. I am just not in good enough shape for that!

Continuing to use the electric bicycle would have saved me all of the money.

I could have bought a cheaper model. You can find nice, good running 125 cc scooters for 1.500 euro or even less. Most other Vespa models are even cheaper than this one. I definitely could have saved 1.000 euro on the purchase price and gotten all the same advantages of owning a 125cc scooter I have now. I went for the nicest model.

Conclusion

I know my most hard core frugal days are behind me. I am getting soft in my old age. And there even is a pattern to detect. I didn’t own a bed until I was 38 years old. But when I bought one, I bought a very nice full oak one. It’s fantastic! In the dilemma between buy cheap or buy once for the rest of your life I usually advocate for buying cheap so you can get more of your money working for you. But one some things I appear to fall in the buy once for the rest of your life. I will probably never buy another scooter in my life. And I know for a fact I will never buy another bed in my life time. And I wanted a nice looking, great scooter for the rest of my life!

It is also only around 1% of my stash, so for the young people reading this and still building their stash: use your bicycle or buy a cheap scooter and use it until it falls apart and build your stash! And then buy a nice scooter!!

Ps. For those of you wondering, yes that is my drive way and no, the building in the back is not my house. It’s a barn (which we don’t really use). And yes, to the right there is an old green house (we don’t use that either).  I’ll do a post or two about our house in the future. Not buying it would have brought me really close to FI right about now, so the house probably added about 5 years of working. Well worth it in my opinion.

Changing credit card

Up until now I had a classic Visa card which cost me 18 euro per year. Since most of my on line shopping and all of my off line purchases are being paid with my regular bank card this card was more of an extra security measure in case something was wrong with the main bank card. Or when travelling abroad and the Visa card was the only card that was accepted/worked. It is always good to have an extra card with you!

Streetlife

A little real life example will illustrate this. A few years ago a friend of mine went to the USA for work and since the EUR was strong back then I asked her to bring me back a digital camera. Since I had known her for years and trusted her completely I gave her my visa card and code. She said this was unnecessary but I did not want the hassle of having to calculate the exchange rate when paying her back in euro’s and this way everything was nice and easy for the both of us. A week later I received a call. She needed to stay a few days longer and since she also had to bring back a few Iphones (for persons who had not given her their credit card) and there was also a security deposit blocked by the hotel. She was now at her limit on both her own cards! Could she please use my card to pay for the extra nights? Sleeping on the streets of New York avoided, by having my extra credit card with her!

Money, money, money!

So yes, an extra card never hurts. But 18 euro a year just was is too much for this feature. I used to have a free one with Keytrade (before I shut that broker account down and when I went to work for the big bank I also shut down my Argenta account) and my fiancée still has a free one at Argenta. But I wanted to do better than free and preferably find a card with some cash back possibility.

pile of credit cards

I landed on the Extra world MasterCard via Beobank: a 5 euro per year cost and a cash back of a 100 euro a year. A far cry from or the credit card hacks in the USA but 95 euro for switching to another card and using that one while grocery shopping? I’ll take it!!

Slashing the 18 euro of recurring costs reduces the seize of my stash need by 450 euro!

The 100 euro of cash back even adds a further reduction of 2500 euro! So almost 3.000 euro reduction in the seize of my stash!

Travel hacking

And then FOB wrote about the Flying Blue-American Express card. Finally available in the Netherlands and the best available choice for some travel hacking! So I checked if it was available in Belgium as well. Beobank had it, but nowhere do they mention it being free for the first year. And I wanted a cheaper card, not a more expensive one!

There is a nice little overview here of available travel hacking cards in Belgium. Nothing as good as the deal FOB got.

Why do the Dutch get better conditions than us Belgians? Not faire!

I looked and looked but cannot find a similar deal as the Dutch. Did I miss something, anybody found a better cash back credit card in Belgium (with no or low annual costs)? My application for the Beobank one has not yet been send so if there is something better out there, let me know!

Special circumstance investing – march update

The UVX put I bought will take some time to move into a profit. And I am getting bored again.

What I did

So yesterday I sold 2 put contracts on ABI, strike: 100 and expiration in May.

This gets me a premium of 3,95 euro which is not a bad return for a 2 and a half month time period. Another 790 euro of cash added to the stash. This is actually less than 0,3% of the stash but if I can do it 2 more times I will have added another 1% to my return this year!

If I get assigned I buy a great company with a decent dividend at 96,05 euro a share. I chose the lower strike of 100 euro as I do not really want to be assigned. I do kind of have the money to pay for the shares. You see, my special construction (which I do not explain since it is highly leveraged stuff) pays me a lot of cash up front: around 38 000 USD. Financing fees will eat up around 14 000 USD during the life of the construction but in the end I should end up with around 24 000 USD in profits. I keep all this cash as cash as things can always go wrong and then I need to move fast and close the construction. But with the recent rise in stock prices I now have a nice little buffer and I abhor cash not working for me! These puts are a way to get some return and most probably still keep the cash buffer intact. I have to admit that I do like making money on money I made with money I do not own!

stack of stones

balancing my investments on top of each other

The risk of things going bump in the night

If everything goes well I’ll have made a bit off extra cash. If stocks start going down again I will close the construction (which I would do anyway) with a small profit. I will then not have enough cash for the 200 ABI shares. But if I do get assigned the ABI stock, I still have the ability to buy them with borrowed money from Lynx. This will then be the only leveraged position I have. It will be less than 10% of my total portfolio. Dividends of ABI would cover most of the financing fees for this leverage so I could keep it for a very long time. Most likely I would also write covered calls on the position, more than generating enough cash to cover the financing fees. With leveraged plays I always look at the possible downside and then determine if the risk is acceptable.

Variation on a theme

Whendoyouretire did a similar trade but at 110 euro strike. That’s actually pretty smart of him because he does want to get assigned since he is a dividend growth investor! If the stock does go higher, he will have earned one hell of a premium! Since I would prefer not being assigned I chose a much lower strike. But that is one of the main advantages of options. With put and call, sell and buy, moving the strike price or the expiry date, options actually offer you a very big pallet of possibilities for a whole lot of different purposes.

The girlfriends portfolio

I only figured out the construction in June of 2016 and I first wanted to test it out in my stash. This meant that the girlfriend was a bit late to the party. Her construction ends in March. At present prices I do not feel secure in repeating the construction for her. So yesterday I unwound the construction in her account. Total profit of it was around 7.000 USD. Not bad for 6 months. I also opened a new 1 x leveraged position (the construction was 2 x leveraged) in Monsanto with the use of CfD’s. Only 1 x leverage as I want to avoid any possibility of margin call on her portfolio in the small change that the merger between Bayer and Monsanto falls through. I am also keeping her construction profits in cash as an extra precaution and to cover the overnight financing fee’s of the CfD’s. When Monsanto moves higher and the risk of losing money on the leveraged position gets smaller I will look for a way to invest some of this cash. Financial Velociraptor did a similar merger arbitrage play but without the use of any leverage I think. The merger arbitrage of Monsanto first came on my radar when I read Berkshire Hathaway did it. But one should always do one’s own homework. I am not that impressed by the performance of Monsanto but the 2 billion USD breakup fee if the merger would not succeed convinced me. If the merger does not go through (and Bayer has 2 billion reasons to make sure it does happen) Monsanto will be sitting on a mountain of cash!

That is me done until I can profitably sell my UVXY put. Time to start concentrating on my diet!

Gentleman of leisure

There was some debate on the money moustache forums on what to say what you do once you are early retired.

And although I firmly believe that financial independence in Belgium will always involve some work and I am not yet retired I still felt the need to add my favorite answer: gentleman of leisure.

Although I usually say it in mocking tone I am actually not really kidding.

I love the definition: a gentleman who is of independent means and so does not need employment, one who is free from duties and responsibilities, a dilettante.

I actually, really love the word dilettante: gentleman tinkerers who experimented with steam engines and flying machines which they conducted in the barn behind the manor house.

I love the Georgian and Victorian era. There is a reason why steampunk gets it inspiration in that bygone era. There was a great feeling of optimism and love of science.

I find it a pity that we now live in an era of unparalleled scientific discoveries and yet there is so much pessimism all around us. The possibilities that are available to people with a median income are unparalleled: my girlfriend flies to Porto, Portugal for the sole purpose of attending the Primavera festival. It’s bonkers! If I want a specific book I can download it in less than a minute on my phone!  We can build buildings 1 km high! We can clone and genetically manipulate living organisms. The list is endless and yet we think our future will be bleak!

So I might say I aspire to be a gentleman of leisure in a half mocking tone, but I am actually pretty serious about it. Then again, I also waited until I owned 1 500 Berkshire Hathaway class B shares (the equivalent of 1 class A share) before getting engaged to my long time (as in 14 years long time) girlfriend  because part of me thinks one should be a man of considerable means before getting engaged. Yes, I am strange man and lucky to have such a wonderful and patient girlfriend …

I think our world needs more gentlemen of leisure and more people who aspire to become a dilettante once they have achieved financial freedom!

Personally, I want to build a 90 meter wall at one side of our property, I want to participate in the Mongol rally, visit Japan and New Zealand for a few months, tinker with a raspberry pi and explore the world of gridcoin and Boinc, there is the biohacking community (who doesn’t want to be able to feel electromagnetic fields?), do it yourself genetic engineering (I want my gargoyle god damn it!!), work on an oldtimer Vespa or just party hard like I am 19 again!

Last week I got my first glimpse on how it would feel to be a gentleman of leisure. With the carnival in Aalst I partied and got pretty drunk Sunday night. Monday night was a repeat of Sunday. Tuesday was vegging out on the couch. Wednesday was more recuperating on the couch (my age is showing here, I just do not recuperate as I used to do in my youth) when I got a text message from a friend saying Berkshire Hathaway was setting new record highs. Logging into my broker account for the first time in a few weeks I discovered my stash had gone up with more than 10.000 euro. I know these short term stock movements are meaningless. But I have to say: two nights of partying and two days of being a couch potato and then discover you actually gained 10.000 euro? A fucking good feeling!

Now, if you excuse me, I have some tinkering to do ….

Ps. the drunken debauchery that is known as Aalst carnaval? Cultural heritage recognized by the united nations. I just did my part to keep this old heritage alive (it’s a dirty job, but somebody has to do it 😉

Monthly expense report : february

It is once more time for an overview of my expenses and savings of the last month.

As mentioned before: no investment gains are taken into account and our monthly mortgage payments (which are by far our highest expense) are viewed as an expense.

Personal account:

Income: 2 094,62

Expenses : 1 670,05

Savings: 424,57 or 20,27%

The month was off to a bad start with a 35 euro parking ticket. This was my most stupid expense by far as it was perfectly avoidable (free parking for 2 hours if I had just put the little blue disk out) but just shows not to be in a hurry.

The yearly carnival in my hometown of Aalst also cost me around 140 euro. But I had a fun time, so I consider this money well spend.

Anyway, these two items explain the expenses above 1 500 euro. The ultimate goal of keeping a budget for me is to see if indeed I can live on 1 500 euro a month. If we look at what we saved on the joint bank account this goal was once again achieved. Any savings will eventually be reinvested in home renovations. I am counting on special circumstance investing and rising stock prices to grow my stash.

The results of the joint bank account

Income: 2 344 (1 100 euro each and some meal tickets)

Expenses: 1 886,63

Savings: 457,37

Adding this half to my savings amount and my savings rate for the month of February was 31,2%.

Gas for the car seems to hover stable around the 150 euro mark. Hoping for not too much rain in March so we can use our bikes more and try to push this bill a bit lower.

Groceries were 345 euro which is not bad for a 2 person family. The girlfriend can now eat for free at her work. This depends on which work hours she has to work so this is unfortunately not all days. I have started my diet again so for the next couple of weeks our grocery bill should be even lower!

I did get lucky as a big Visa bill will be landing in March. Extra luck: we will also get a big tax return in march so we will keep a positive savings rate!

Special circumstance investing

So after having explained my general views on investing. And why I really, really like the combination of our low interest rate environment, CfD’s and Lynx (a reseller of Interactive Brokers). I will now go into a bit more detail of what I did in 2016 with the newly discovered tools and what I am on the lookout for at the moment.

2016

I covered most of this in my post about the origin of my stash. But I’ll try to give a bit more explication on why I did it and the difference leverage made.

The first opportunity I had to use leverage was when AB Inbev made a take offer bid on SAB MILLER. They offered 44 GBP but the market had doubts so the SAB MILLER stock traded at 40 GBP. This was a 10% gap. I had no doubts that a) the take offer bid would materialize and b) this would happen in less than a year. So what I saw was the possibility to borrow at less than 3% to make around 10%. I was confident because I knew AB Inbev for more and a decade, this was the final piece of puzzle they had been putting together for a long time and they had successfully done the take over/merger with Anheuser-Busch. But I also looked at the downside and there the picture looked good as well: SAB MILLER had actually grown more in the last years than AB INBEV, the markets they operated in had more promise, they promised to apply the cost cutting culture of AB INBEV if the merger did not go through and they actually paid a dividend that almost covered my financing fee. The downside was actually not all that bad. Sure, the stock of SAB MILLER would probably drop to around 34 GBP (the price before the offer) but looking at the economics of SAB MILLER I felt confident they would be at 40 GBP within 2 years. So merger goes through: I make a nice and quick profit, merger does not go through: I’ll still make a profit but it will probably take 2 ears or more. So I bought 5000 CfD’s on SAB MILLER at around 40.50 GBP. The brexit and a change in margin requirements would force me out of the trade but in the end I still made a net profit of 8366 GBP. Less than I had anticipated but since the leveraged position was about the size of my total stash it did add a nice 4% extra return. And I made it between the end of December and mid June. the leverage made all the difference. Without it I would have been forced to find some free cash or sell other stocks. Berkshire was around 130 USD when I started the leveraged position and it was 140 USD. It had actually gone up 7% in the same time period. Not using leverage would have made me miss this run up in Berkshire Hathaway.

With the SAB MILLER position active and me not needing to work at the time I grew bored. So I tried my hand at day trading. Technically it was day trading because I was buying and selling on the same day. But actually I had identified some stock that was cheap and I wanted to buy some. I just didn’t feel too comfortable with already having a 200.000 GBP leveraged position so as soon as I made some profit I closed the position (and thus the extra leverage). I practiced a bit with Berkshire Hathaway and Coca cola. And then when Google went down to 730 USD I really had some fun with it. Real day trading is off course have dozens or even hundreds of trades and playing both an uptrend and downtrend in stock price. I just bought stock I thought was cheap and then sold with a small profit. Sometimes I only did 1 or 2 of these trades, and some days 6 or 8. I found it to be way to much work and also too much stress but I did make around 2.500 USD in profits from it (another 1% added to the stash). But it would have been much more profitable to just buy Google at 730 USD, keep it for a few months and then sell it around 780 USD. I just wasn’t very comfortable with that amount of leverage at that time.

But a friend of mine had combined everything we had learned about investing and the possibilities that Lynx offered and found a very interesting construction one could set up. I will not go into detail because it uses around 2X leverage (very, very dangerous!) and you should only do it with some very specific stocks (1 in particular is well suited for it) at certain price points. No need to feel left out as at present prices, one most definitely should not do it!

But in June 2016 the price was right and with the leverage of SAB MILLER gone I myself set up a similar construction. This would net me around 10.000 USD a 12.000 USD. With the leverage involved and the long period of the construction it is a bit difficult to determine the exact profit (or I should start keeping more detailed records, for which I am way too lazy! The construction was wildly profitable and that is good enough for me).

In-between all of the above, and because I was now making profits with my leveraged positions I also wrote a few puts on Berkshire Hathaway, none of them called because Berkshire Hathaway had a really good 2016! I would have liked to buy extra shares at a lower price but the 1 500 USD in premiums was nice as well. I did pick up some Berkshire Hathaway shares to hold and add to my collateral (all that profit had to go somewhere).

Looking at 2016, it may seem as I was all over the map. But if you discount the ‘day trading’ activity I actually did not do a whole lot of trades and I was only active in 5 different stocks. All of which I have known for years, or even decades. For me, most of the work is in identifying good companies to invest in. Once that is done, doing trades in them, even if that is with options or via CfD’s does not take a lot of time or effort. It is my long held belief that an investor only needs a handful of quality stocks he knows really, really well and a good understanding of all the possibilities of options to do very well for himself.

Thanks to the smart use of leverage I added a bit more than 10% extra return to my stash.

2017

Early in 2017 I could repeat the construction from mid 2016. This will add around 24.000 USD to my stash, or an extra 10% return. The price point at which I could do it was stretching my comfort zone somewhat. A sharp drop in stock price is the only risk I have, stock price remaining equal or going higher do not make any difference (I do have around 5% downward protection, but after that, things become dicey). At 2 times leverage I have felt a bit unsettled but we are now one month into it and prices have risen another 6% so that does give me another safety cushion!

Setting up the construction only took 5 minutes (10 if you add the time i spend on my parents stash) and then left me with not a whole much to do. i grew bored. I also came to the realization I like investing. I like it a lot. I have literally zero need to keep reading financial and economic stuff but yet I continue to read, read, read.

I miss being active and when I find something really, really smart I am not ashamed to admit I drool over it.

I am drooling over UVXY. it seems to be a product designed to go lower in price over time. Financial velociraptor found it. Which makes it ideal to short it (or buy puts on it). With the construction it is prudent to keep a decent amount of cash at hand. Especially in the beginning. At the moment that is around 40.000 USD. Over time, the leverage is going to cost me around 12.000 USD.

So me being bored, having found this really cool stock to play with and having a lot of cash available. Well, I had to try a trade in it! I copied Velociraptors last trade. It is not beneath me to copy somebody’s cool idea! So I bought three contracts of UVXY190118P00013000. We will see how it turns out. It is ideal to familiarize myself with it. The longer the construction runs, the less need to hold large amounts of cash. So starting slow with not too much cash and slowly building my confidence in these trades and making them larger as time goes by is ideal for me at the moment.

Prices of most stock are pretty high but I am looking at some stuff.

Resilux, there is a takeover bid at 195 euro and the stock currently sits at 188.75 euro. Takeover bid has the support of current management and there is a fair change it will go through. At 185 euro it would be a nice CfD play. Doubtfull it will go so low, and volume is also low but I have set an e-mail alert on it at 185,50 euro.

Vandevelde got knocked down to 57,5 euro. They pay a net dividend of 4.2% at current stock price (3.5 bruto – 30% taxes). But I do not like them paying full free cash flow in dividends, or being geographically limited (bulk of their sales profit come from Belgium and France and with the upcoming presidential election in France, 2017 may be bumpy). Still, good company with a nice product (Belgian men know what I am talking about) and well run. But too many doubts.

I almost wrote some puts on coca cola when they stood at 40,50 USD last week. I wanted a slightly higher premium and also visited some friends on the day I was planning to do it (and I forgot t take my log in information with me, doh!). Here is hoping they go back down. Last time Coca-cola was around the 40 USD price level I made around 15% in a 4 month time frame. Would like to repeat that if at all possible! Set another e-mail alert at 40,80 USD. I would write 5 put contracts at strike 40 and an expiry 5 to 6 months away. Can stocks please go a bit lower? It’s starting to become a bit ridiculous!

And then there is another takeover arbitrage possibility. Bayer wants to pay 128 USD cash for Monsanto but Monsanto is only trading at 110,70 USD at the moment. That is a nice 15% gap. It is also an arbitrage Buffett is apparently playing and he is seldom wrong. But I need to do my homework on Monsanto first. Would I mind holding the stock for some time at current price if the deal falls through? Since I am already at the max leverage I want to tolerate, this would actually be something for the girlfriends stash. So I really need to do my homework. She still hasn’t decided if she wants to actually make a profit of Monsanto as she doesn’t like the company or its products. Personally I am amoral if it comes down to investments but like I said, I really need to read up on Monsanto before risking any of the girlfriends money. If I do it, I will limit the leverage to 1X or even only 0.75X of her stash.

So this what I have done in 2017 and what I am currently looking at. Did anybody make it all the way to the end?

A holy trinity

As I already mentioned in my post about the origin of my stash, I changed my investment approach at the end of 2015, early 2016.

The catalyst for this change was a new tax the Belgium government had passed. The speculation tax would tax any profits made on stocks you both and sold within a 6 month time frame. The tax did not take losses into account. As a value investor this tax would not have a really big impact on my investments. Although I never said no to a quick win either. There is on occasion a free lunch to be had on the financial markets. But it was the general principal. We already had a stock order tax when buying and selling stocks (0.27% of value when you buy and sell stock) and the dividend tax had gone up from 15% to 27% (30% now). It felt as our government had been gunning for the private stock investor for a few years now and this new tax was the proverbial last drop in the bucket. It pissed me off. It royally pissed me off and when the tax was announced, I started looking for a way around it. Fortunately for me, I found more than just a work around, I found what amounts to the holy trinity for a quirky guy like me.

That holy trinity for me is Contract for Difference (CfD’s), the low interest rate environment + Interactive brokers (or in my case their local re-seller Lynx).

Contract for Difference

CfD’s is a very special product. You see, it behaves exactly as a the underlying stock but it isn’t a stock. It is also a contract between you and your financial institution meaning they’re not actually traded on a stock exchange (but it does behave in the same way).  This means the speculation tax was not applicable. The stock order tax is not applicable either. And the cost of buying or selling a CfD is ridiculous low. Especially for CfD’s on US stocks where it is 0.01 cent per CfD. An almost perfect product. There is off course a catch. When buying CfD’s, you actually borrow the money from your financial institution. And that of course has a cost. It is an overnight fee which means that you are only charged interest if you keep your position overnight. Buy and sell (or sell and buy as you can also go short with CfD’s) in the same day and no interest will be charged. This is why CfD’s are mainly used for day trading. It is also the reason why I never looked closer at this financial product before the end of 2015 although I had been aware of its existence before that.

Enter our current low interest rate environment

The low interest rate environment

When rates are high you would be a fool to keep a CfD postion for a long time. Paying a 6% rate to make perhaps 8 or 10% profit is not a very attractive proposition. Better close that position during the day! But interest rates are low now. Close to zero, and for the euro even negative. The interactive broker rates can be found here.

Borrowing at around 2% to make around 8% to 10% profit? Well that’s very attractive. Especially since you have stocks paying a higher dividend than that!! When I came to this realization I was drooling more than that time Alyson Hannigan appeared as lesbian vampire willow in Buffy the vampire slayer.

It was about the become even better (yay , a threesome!).

Collateral at Interactive brokers

You see, brokers are not willing to have just anybody borrow large amounts to buy CfD’s. They need collateral so they are sure you can cover your losses if the trade should not go as you planned and you have a loss. Most brokers will offer leverage on that collateral letting you borrow more than the collateral. But I am not that big a fan of leverage. Collateral is a lot like lesbian vampire Willow: great in small doses and for an occasional fling in the woods but you do not want to take her home to meet the parents or be married to her. Most brokers want you to put up cash as a collateral. But cash does not offer any decent returns. Meaning you have this pile of dead capital just lying there, except if you would take on leverage and buy CfD’s. Not a very appealing proposal! It forces you to be leveraged all of the time or have 0 return on your cash. You do not want to be leveraged all of the time because just like being married to vampire Willow, sooner or later you will wind up dead.

But Interactive brokers also accept stocks as collateral! They especially love A list stocks like Berkshire Hathaway. You see, this right here? This is the moment where you are fooling around with lesbian vampire Willow and normal Willow turns up, gets exited and ask you if she can join the fun!

What this means is that you can plow everything you have in Berkshire Hathaway. Enjoy a better retrun than the index (well, perhaps not at current prices, but I am speaking early 2016 here, the price was right) on this position. And then, when a decent opportunity arises you can use CfD’s and your leverage to get a bit of extra return. Since Berkshire already gives you an average return of 9% a year, this means you only need one nice trade a year to push your return to 12% or higher. It doesn’t need to be Berkshire stock, and index fund is also accepted. Beating the index all of a sudden became easy!

In my next post I’ll explain how I used this holy trinity to achieve a 39% return last year and what I am contemplating at the moment … And now you have to excuse me because there still seems to be a lot of vampire Willow images on the internet …

On investing

Contrary to many people in the financial independence/early retirement community I have always been a stock picker and have no interest in becoming an index investor. I really do believe that for an individual investor it is certainly possible to beat the index and thus achieve financial independence sooner.

This does not mean the FIRE community has it wrong. On the contrary, I think they are very right to promote low cost index investing for the majority of people. It is a sure way to financial independence.

Investing in individual stocks is only something you should do if you love it and have the personality for it.

For the love of the game

You really, really have to love it. You have to love reading books about it. Reading even more about companies you think to invest in. Read their annual reports, their balance sheets. Read about the CEO of a company. Or books about past great CEO’s so you can identify current great CEO’s! You have to love it, because in the beginning your efforts will be in no way compensated by your profits. Investing is something where you have to do the bulk of your effort in the beginning. But that is also the moment where you have the least amount of money so your reward for all that effort will be the smallest. Getting a return of 10% on a stash of 30.000 euro is great but it is only 3.000 euro. And there is a mountain of reading to do to just cover the basics. If you would calculate your hourly pay for all that reading you probably only made a dollar per hour …

Fast forward 10 years and your stash might have grown to 300.000 euro. Making 10% then is 30.000 euro. And since you have already learned most in the early years and have a few companies where you have done your extensive homework, the work you need to do is little to none.

Because of this reversed compensation structure you really need to love investing and stock picking to get you through those first couple of years.

The right personality

Not only do you need the type of personality that loves reading about all the stuff I mentioned above. You also need to be the type of person that loves numbers. There’s the balance sheet of the companies. There is the stock price, your return, the risk you run … Numbers, numbers, numbers.

And then you need to be able to see past the numbers. Recognize trends but also be able to determine which companies have a big moat, which numbers are relevant for which sector. Which company has an excellent management and which has a crap one. Does the story the company tells you in its annual report and in its balance sheet match? And does it all make sense or is it a reincarnation of Enron?

Are you disciplined enough to stick to your own rules and not be influenced by the daily noise the stock market generate every day? Can you handle the up and down swings of stocks? To give you an example of the latter: I had a 60.000 euro position reduced to around 24.000 euro in a matter of a year! I was earning 2.000 euro a month by working, and here I was losing 36.000 euro in one year! I can tell you it hurt. It physically hurt! It would talk 7 years before I could exit the position profitable. And it is in large part thanks to some fancy option work (and luck) that after 7 years I could walk away with a 41% profit. But 41% on a 7 year period is only a compound annual growth rate of 5.14%. Believe me, I paid for those 5% with pain and a tenacity I really did not know I had (if there is any interest I will dedicate a seperate post to this ‘very painful’ investment). So the question is: do you have the right personality for it? If not, well as mentioned before, index investing is a perfectly fine way to achieve financial independence.

Beating the index

In my opinion it is certainly possible for a private investor to beat the index. I also believe it is very difficult for an actively managed fund to beat the index. The reasons are very simple.

– Professionally managed funds have a very high cost basis. They have insane overhead and personnel costs, eating up a nice chunk of return. Your cost structure is close to zero.

– they have tons of government rules to follow, and then a shit load of internal rules to follow. You have absolute flexibility.

Private investors can take advantage of the career risk of professional investors. Lyn Alden in a guest post over at amber tree leaves explains this well. She also explains option trading pretty well. I too like writing options and her post is well worth the read (personally I keep my distance from commodities and precious metals, but I agree with everything else she wrote).

-financial velociraptor just wrote a fantastic post about three different asset classes that should return above 10% at the least (selling or writing options is one of them, hmm great minds think alike). Go read this post people! it is really brilliant in my humble opinion. And after you are done with that post, read everything he ever posted about UVXY. That is a truly horrible financial product and he found a way to profit of it! Another brilliant find!

Conclusion

If you love it and you have the personality for it you should definitely become an active investor. It will turn into a livelong obsession that will probably change the way you look at the world. Figuring stuff out. Or discovering a great investment opportunity can give you an incredible rush! The money is just a nice extra!

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